Sunday, October 26, 2008

High Probability Trading: How to lose Money

High Probability Trading: How to lose Money

Why would you want to lose money in GTA?

Monday, June 23, 2008

Spring Update

Here is a quick spring update of my investing and a couple of links that I've found. I have held my RIMM and AAPL shorts which have hurt me badly. This coming off a huge loss from hanging on to BMO over that "credit crisis".

Even though my portfolio has been terrible and I've been crippled I've hung on and made some good trades, most recently buying BCE before the Supreme Court ruling. I've also been added to a Yellow Pages YLO.UN holding as it goes down (the yield is pretty much too good to be true.

Some links that I've found interesting:

You can create a boiler plate resignation letter if you care to join the mass exodus at Yahoo YHOO here.

This guy has put his life up for sale on eBay.

Sunday, April 20, 2008

I would be better off in a savings account...

Thats right, it has been a horrible year for investing. I have to do my tax return in the next week and I will actually have capital gains to declare and pay tax on. But in 2008, I have a sad feeling that I'll be going back and applying my losses to those 2007 gains.

I've already told you about the big loss that I took on BMO. Right after I couldn't handle the pain anymore, BMO bounced up! While it is still below where I purchased it right now (when I sold it my average cost was $52), I started purchasing in the $60's. When it got to $38 I couldn't take it anymore.

What have I done since then? Well, I've made some good trades but never made back nearly as much as when I have a losing trade. It is very frustrating watching two winners like Visa (NYSE:V) and Yellow Pages (TSE:YLO.UN) do well for me, only to lose 3 times that amount on my Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) short.

Speaking of which, everyone assumes that AAPL is going to blow earnings out of the water on Tuesday. If thats the case, I'll probably have my first margin call and my brokerage account will be screwed! Great! However, I will have to hand it to AAPL if they do. I just do not think they can keep up this growth pace. People who buy Mac's can use them for a very long time. They've already hit the student market - those students are dishing out multiple thousands for another over priced machine. I just don't get it. Hopefully everyone is wrong about AAPL - just like they were when Google (NASDAQ:GOOG) reported earnings.

Speaking of which, I was considering buying GOOG going into earnings as a hedge against AAPL but then I thought that was a dumb idea, ugh, always on the wrong side of the trade lately!

Friday, March 21, 2008

Down but not out...

I've taken my loss on Bank of Montreal (BMO) so that I could free up some capital for the Visa (V) IPO on Wednesday. That has been pretty successful but it really hurt watching BMO fix its problems in 3 days and surge like it did! Oh well, can't dwell on that now.

Speaking of dwelling on bad decisions - after investing in Bear Sterns (BSC) on the Friday when it fell to $30/share, I was able to hold the next week until it went to $7. After that I was able to short it down to $5 and make some of my money back.

Not sure what next week holds but I'll be looking to put the rest of my capital to work and sit on it for a week while I go on vacation.

Saturday, March 15, 2008

BMO continues to kill me

My position in BMO has crippled my portfolio. I have started to take on risky stuff like yellow pages and going bearish on oil to try to make up for it.
Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Saturday, March 1, 2008

This market is hard to make money!

It seems that the stocks I went long on are going down and the stocks I went short on went up! Hard week for sure. Hopefully it gets better.

Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Thursday, February 28, 2008

Open a short position on IBKR

Decided to open a short position on IBKR at 33.75. The long term prospects for this company appear strong so I am just trying to ride a little wave down and then cover.

Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Closed POT and AAPL positions

Closed out the POT position at a small loss and the AAPL position at a nice gain.
Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

CQV Press Conference Tomorrow

The stock spiked to 10.5 cents yesterday and then the news came that they are having a press confernce tomorrow regarding Shoal Point.

This could be anything but given the uptick in the stock price I am pretty confident that it is positive news. I guess we will see tomorrow!

Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Tuesday, February 26, 2008

Apple's annoucement

Ho-hum. Faster Macbooks - more memory and harddrive space too. The Macbook Pro's were updated to include the patented multi-touch, and thats about all. Kind of disappointing.

Apple Stores going down today..

Rumor is there will be a refresh of the Macbook Pro's (possibly blu-ray drive included). Hopefully it will cause the stock to pop!

Monday, February 25, 2008

Shorting POT

Letting my AAPL long sit tight. Tried to catch a little swing trade by shorting POT close to its 52 week high.
Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Sunday, February 24, 2008

The week ahead

I know it might end up burning me but I really enjoy putting all my cash in one position and hoping it pops!
Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Friday, February 22, 2008

Gone long on AAPL

Noticed that AAPL was trading at the levels it was when the iphone came out so I decided to get long!

Also kicking myself for covering my short on RIM to early!
Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Thursday, February 21, 2008

Shorted RIM at $109.30

Today after the RIM spike I shorted 100 shares at $109.30 and then covered half of them at $108.50!

Monday, February 11, 2008

Tuesday, February 5, 2008

Gone long on RIM

After watching my position decrease $150 because of the mistake I made yesterday I got mad and added another 100 shares of RIM. I rally need this to bounce now!

Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Monday, February 4, 2008

Clicked wrong button

I sold RIM at a small profit only to watch it go up and up and up. So I get it in my mind to short the stock but I clicked the wrong button and ended up buying it at the days high! Oh my.

Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

Financials sitting pretty

Finally after months of owning BMO and TD they are both above water!
Sent on the TELUS Mobility network with BlackBerry

I sold YHOO before the buyout!

After cashing in on the YHOO short and then getting long the very next morning. I sold a day after that in fear of erasing my gains from the short! What a play it would have been if I held until the MSFT buyout offer.
Right now, I have a bigger portion of my portfolio in RIM. I was trying to trade it on Friday but never found an exit point - hopefully it doesn't burn me.

Wednesday, January 30, 2008

1/30/08: Covered my YHOO short and went long at $18.88

Hoping for a bonuce back here, maybe investors react to the job cutting or the fed decision and possibly a short squeeze since the easy money is made on the short side now.

Tuesday, January 29, 2008

This Just In: GE is Bankrupt - LOL

YHOO guides down & LXK suprises

Just before the close of the market I added to my YHOO short 100 shares, so 175 in total. The stock is down 10% in after-hours trading right now.

LXK annouced a great quarter and shot up 15% today.

Assuming I can cover the YHOO short tomorrow at the levels it is trading at in the after market - my portfolio went up about $550 today which is >5% return! Pretty nice considering the way the market has been treating me lately.

01/29/08: Lexmark (LXK) Beat Street Expectations

Great news this morning is that Lexmark (LXK) Beat Street Expectations and has rose 12% in the premarket.

But there is bad news on YHOO pre-earnings annoucement, Cramer's cronies seem to think good things are in store with the article: Own Yahoo? Lucky you.

We'll see how the day progresses.

Monday, January 28, 2008

January 28, 2007 Final Results

Ended up being up $120 for the day.

AMD and YHOO shorts canceled out since they went in opposite directions.

BMO and LXK were the two big winners netting $107 profit.

Tomorrow will be interesting to see how the market reacts with the pending Fed meeting and also how YHOO moves as they are set to put out results at the close of the market tomorrow!

Wish me luck!

Monday, January 28, 2008

With the overseas markets declining this morning on rate-cut concerns.

Pre-market shows the following good news for my recent tech shorts:

AMD down 1.26%
YHOO down 1.37%

Afternoon update:

Market appears to be fairly stable awaiting the Fed meeting coming up later in the week (even with the overseas selling off pretty hard).

I'm up about $80 today based on YHOO being down over 4% (earnings come out after the close on Tuesday - really hard to say where this will go). The consensus appears to be that they have it priced into the stock and it should not re-act much after earnings. I'll decide tomorrow or later today if I'll get out.

The rest of my stocks are up and down, netting to no real change.

Sunday, January 27, 2008

Trading Losses

I'm sure you've all read about the French trader who lost 7.1 billion dollars recently. Can't wait for the Made for TV Movie

Browsing the interweb tonight, I came across the wikipedia article that summarizes traders who have realized over $100 million in trading losses.

My Portfolio as of January 27, 2008

Well, I'm about to show you my portfolio with current positions. I know that I have too many stocks and I am in over my head. I'm actually trading on margin alot more lately, trying to make a big move.

If you remember my big position that was really hurting me was Advanced Micro Devices (AMD). I had purchased 230 shares of it back in November at around $12 and in the following two months I watched it quickly sink to under $6 at one point. I realized I'd need it to jump more than 100% just to get back to my cost base. I really hated this stock. Watching it go down day after day was very frustrating. So it recently made a jump up to the high $7's on speculation that IBM was going to be taking them over. So at that point I sold all my shares and actually shorted AMD (risky, I know). The shares continued to rise in the following days but on Friday it took a 5% dip as the speculation of an IBM takeover died down.

I've tried to ignore some of my longer term positions lately and just concentrate on buying some stocks so I can watch them throughout the day. I recently purchased LULU and it had a 5% spike - so I sold.

Another recent trade was Colgate (CL), just before they reported earnings I shorted it. However, the stock has not moved up or down since announcing earnings.

Stay tuned in the following weeks as I trim down my portfolio and try to take some calculated risks in order to get a big return!

I've deposited a total of $10,700 into the brokerage account and if I liquidated all my positions now I would only be able to cash out $9,500 (so that is very frustrating).

Any tips or comments would be appreciated.

NameSymbolLast priceChangeSharesCost basisMkt valueGainGain %

Advanced Micro Devices, Inc.AMD7.15-0.43-2001430-1430573.99, Inc.AMZN77.6-0.0710849776-73-8.6

Bank of MontrealBMO55.4-0.894023442216-128-5.46

Avis Budget Group Inc.CAR11.43-0.2230495342.9-152.1-30.73

Canadian Imperial Venture Corp.CQV0.070.0150003003505016.67

Google Inc.GOOG566.4-8.0921357.841132.8-225.04-16.57

Imperial Oil LimitedIMO49.180.8520934.8983.648.85.22

Kimberly-Clark CorporationKMB64.08-0.3510700640.8-59.2-8.46

Leap Wireless International, Inc.LEAP38.95-0.1917698.87662.15-36.72-5.25

Lexmark International, Inc.LXK28.02-0.614016261120.8-505.2-31.07

Messina Minerals Inc.MMI0.420.02500435210-225-51.72

Rutter Inc.RUT0.270.01500305135-170-55.74

Sony Corporation (ADR)SNE46.69-0.820935.4933.8-1.6-0.17

Toronto-Dominion BankTD66.28-1.02251701.51657-44.5-2.62

Tristar Oil & Gas LimitedTOG12.680.025046763416735.76

Walgreen CompanyWAG34.28-0.7120806.4685.6-120.8-14.98

Lululemon Athletica inc.LULU30.67-1.44

Yahoo! Inc.YHOO21.940.25-751645.5-1645.5-134.25-8.16

Colgate-Palmolive CompanyCL73.75-0.71-201475-1475-1.6-0.11

Wednesday, January 9, 2008

Welcome back - it's been a hard couple of months!

Hey everyone, I stopped posting on the blog for a couple of months and
the performance of my stock portfolio went down big time. I am now
below where I started in July 2006. I starting shorting stocks,
trading on margin and all the things you're not supposed to do and I
kept earning - then it all hit me in the face.

I currently hold 16 stocks and 30% of my portfolio is stocks owned on
margin which I am paying for. As bad as it has been there is only one
stock that is really killing me - Advanced Micro Devices (AMD).

Every day that I go to check the chart, I cringe as it has
unbelievably gone down yet again! Day after day, it is very hard to
watch all your hard earned money go down like that. I really do not
want to sell at this point as that is probably the worst thing you can
do at this point.

Considering the mutual funds and markets have all been down over the
past month and it might seem hard now as the Christmas bills begin to
roll in - you really need to try to get some money in now at these low
levels and get the bounce back!