Sunday, November 11, 2007

Financial Analysis Made Simple

I just got done reading an article regarding on XBRL which stands for eXtensible Business Reporting Language. It "tags" financial information that is released by public companies so that people will be able to analyze their financial information with ease. By tagging certain information like net income, then one would be able to pull that income from various companies at once rather than having to open a variety of files. More information can be read about it in this Telegram article.

Thursday, November 1, 2007

CQV Doubles Up

Wow, experienced my first double up since starting to invest. I know that when you're playing with penny stocks you're playing with fire - but when it hits, it feels good! This week CQV has went from 4-5 cents up to 13 cents!

My ACB was 6 cents plus commissions so when it hit 13 cents today I was not sure what to do. No news is out that is driving this. There is speculation about the oil rigs on their way to the West Coast of Newfoundland but they're not even on site yet. Some speculate that there is good news on the Alberta front that is causing this run up. They did release their MD&A to the exchange, these can be found on SEDAR. The documents show that management are more bullish about their prospects than previously assume - this also is part of the run up.

When the stock moved from 6 cents to 9 cents earlier in the week, I expected to see some profit taking. Today when it zoomed to 13 cents, there was some moderate selling but the demand continued to be strong - so most people are staying long. This is a suprise considering the option to buy 186 million shares at 10 cents from the USG acquisition.

I ended up selling half of my position to get my original investment back. I might be kicking myself, but regardless of what happens here I cannot lose on this position.

Monday, October 8, 2007

October Portfolio update

Currently I have a few more losers than winners in my portfolio. I have no problem ditching my winners and cashing in when I am up money but I find it hard to let go and sell at a loss.

Here are a list of my winners right now:

Apple (AAPL) up $163 (25%)
Sony (SNE) up $64 (7%)
Tim Hortons (THI.TO) $103 (6%)

My losers include:

Rutter (RUT.TO) down $67 (22%)
Canadian Imperial Venture Corp (CQV.V) down $107 (18%)
General Motors (GM) down $164 (18%)
Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) down $34 (5%)
Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) down $12 (2%)
Walgreens (WAG) down $25 (3%)
Tristar Oil and Gas (TOG.TO) down $20 (4%)
Messina (MMI.TO) down $12 (3%)
Lexmark (LXK) down $20 (1%)

Got any suggestions on stocks I should dump or add? I am thinking about dumping Tim Hortons either just before earnings release or after. I have a feeling it is going to be a good one but it will already be priced into the stock. So therefore, I may sell on the day of release and hopefully get out at the top!

Saturday, September 29, 2007

Portfolio update

Well, since I last checked in I have made a few purchases. Decided instead of trading on margin anymore, I took out a loan to invest the proceeds.

I've purchased AMD, SNY, YHOO, MMI.TO, LXK, AAPL and NT.TO.

Unfortunately, I also shorted GM just before they went on strike, since a deal was reached I am now down 8%.

The only real loser among the longs has been my penny stock Messina Minerals.

Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Bank of Montreal Reports (BMO.TO)

Argh! BMO reported today and profit was hurt because of the continued trading losses. Whats worse is that other banks (TD & RY) are posting great quarters that are beating analysts expectations.This is so frustrating because I only bought the bank to add stability to my portfolio, because banks are stable and cash machines! Ugh, I should invest with my gut - why would I ever invest in a BANK - they can't double over-night, therefore, no fun!

Thursday, August 23, 2007

Thursday Roundup

Nothing exciting going on with my portfolio today. I guess good news is no news after the past couple of weeks we have all had. Watched my portfolio do nothing again today - even though I have two penny stocks that could win or lose me a nice chunk of the portfolio, its still boring.

Tim Hortons Inc (THI.TO) $1,700 - Still considering dumping this position and moving to something else. Been reading around on it and apparently the pressure in Canada for drive-thru's to be eliminated in an effort to become more green is making the rounds. People are speculating that this will have a negative impact on Tim's earning since this is where the majority of their revenue comes from. I find this hard to believe, the fact that the will be outlawed and even if it was there would have to be some sort of grand-fathering for the existing business' that have drive-thru's constructed.

Kimberly Clarke Corp (KMB) $734 - Reliable KMB took a little nose dive when I first acquired it but I'm almost back to even now as it sits around $70 a share. The test will be to see if it can get through this level of resistance and get to $75 in the next couple of quarters.

Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) $667 - This position has been a bit of a roller coaster since the purchase because of the sub-prime fisaco that took place (taking place?) in the US. I think the majority of people felt this price was unfairly knocked down and it has since rebounded.

Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) $635 - AMD was a calculated gamble by me and so far it has not been very lucky, down 13%. Intel has taken over the market in the past couple of years but the traditional ebb and flow in this industry points to AMD making a come back. Besides, they have nice products in the hopper, they just need to convert this to some market share gains.

Lemark (LXK) $581 - I purchased this after LXK guided down for future revenues and the stock took a beating. On a high level, I like to think that people over hype the paperless office and that printer companies can still make money. I've recently purchased a Lexmark printer and its ability to do Wifi printing is amazing. I've read that they have won awards with their printers already on the market.

Canadian Imperial Venture Corp (CQV.V) $450 - This company is traded on the Venture exchange. They have many oil plays in Western Newfoundland and in Alberta. Recently they have been in the news again since Newfoundland has struck a deal to develop another large oil well on the East Coast. This is highly risky and could easily go to zero any day, therefore it may not be for most people.

Real Resources (RER) $409 - This positon has been merged with another one and ended up losing money. I'll get the details on this later when I have access to my brokerage account.

Stratos Global (SGB.TO) $677 - Waiting for the takeover offer to go through at $7.00/share.

Rutter Inc. (RUT.TO) $260 - Will wait it out to see if their latest acquisition can improve their financial results

Tuesday, August 21, 2007

Tim Hortons Inc update

Well, just as I thought about selling THI - Goldman Sachs came out and cut their rating for Tim Hortons shares. This is not good news for me as it is the largest position. In the article they say that shares have gained about 25 percent in the past 12 months. However, this is the NYSE shares, the ones listed on the TSE are actually down from where they were in January, whereas the NYSE 12 month chart looks like a mountain.

Ideally, I should know the difference between the two listings and be able to differentiate the value of each share. However, to be honest, I am not sure. However, they are both trading at P/E's of 26. However, similar companies such as McDonalds, Burger King, Star Bucks are all trading at P/E ratios of 29, 33, 34 respectfully. Tim's same sale stores continue to grow quarter after quarter so I think their P/E is being traded a little low and despite Goldman Sachs cutting the stock, the price didn't move much.

What do you guys think of THI?

Tuesday Roundup

Nothing exciting happening today. Most of the portfolio is green but it always seems like the days that are green, the percentages are not that big. Lately it seems for every three green days it only takes 1 red day to bring my portfolio to inherent losses.

I did see that getting out of VMWare @ $55 was wrong. Today it shot up to over $65 with an analyst comment, read more about that here.

I am going to try to get around to assessing some of the stocks in my portfolio during the next week and see if any of them are dead money.

Monday, August 20, 2007

Thinking about selling Tim Hortons Inc (THI)

As you can see, Tim Hortons is currently my largest position in my portfolio. Just as the market in general is volatile recently so has THI. It goes up a couple of percentage points and then just comes down. This position is so big that I am actually trading on margin. Originally I thought that Mastercard was going to help their sales (with no signature they can probably serve customers quicker than when they have to make change). However, a reporting period has come and gone and they reported good numbers but the stock did not budge. Perhaps it was already priced into the stock. So the decision I have to make is should I hang on and believe in the long term outlooks of THI or to get this dead money out and into something that can earn me something.

What are your thoughts?

Sunday, August 19, 2007

Week 2

I read some articles this weekend saying that the subprime problems have not fully presented themselves yet and the worse is yet to come. This could be bad new as the North American markets have dipped 10% since this subprime issue came to light.

Here is where my stocks stand entering my second week for the blog:




























Thursday, August 16, 2007


Wow, the markets all took a big hit early and rallied in the afternoon as bargain hunters tookover. I was a little late to the game but as my Bank of Montreal (BMO.T) took a beating all week I kept saying that there is no reason that they should be hurting because of this sub-prime nonsense because they are not affected! Then today, the bounce back - up 4.5%.

The portfolio done nothing, about $600 in inherent losses built up in the portfolio. I think I read somewhere that the markets always go down in August because people move their money to the sidelines. So ideally, I should cash out some savings and dump it in the market now so that when the money comes back off the sidelines in September then I will be ahead of the curve!

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

VMWare Day #2

I know I am spending way too much time looking at this one stock, but it interests me. Yesterday, I bought at pretty much the low and sold it at the high. But today, the stock went up almost $7 (13%) and now another $1.22 (2%) after hours. So the much speculated dying of hype did not happen today. However, reading the google message board many believe the hype will eventually die and the stock will come down in the 40's. Tomorrow will be interesting for sure.

Another horrible days as the penny stock CQV.V traded down another penny - this could really hurt the portfolio. AMD declined almost 5% bringing the loss on that one into triple digits. There are really a bunch of losers in this portfolio and it is getting depressing watching them tumble each day.

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

VMWare (VMW) Insanity IPO

I read about VMWare on Monday and how EMC would be putting 10% of the company on the market in Tuesdays IPO. They also came out late on Monday saying that the IPO price would be raised from the low 20's to $29 a share. Instead it went much higher than that.

So this morning, I decided to try my hand at my first ever Initial Public Offering (IPO) - I decided to put in a limit order for 30 shares at $35. After letting that sit there, I noticed that it looked like the opening bid would be in the 40's, so I raised it to 30 shares at 45. This order did not fill, then I read on some message boards that the thing was in the 50's. So I got sick of putting in limit orders and them not filling - I put in a market order for a small 8 shares to see what would happen. That went for $50.69, I then watched it the rest of the day and decided to get out at $54.28 for a profit of $28.72 (7%)

Small profit, but I'll take 7% in one day, considering the luck I've had with Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO) and Lexmark (LXK) both tanking over 10% in the last couple of weeks.

BDO forced to pay millions in punitive damages a jury ruled on Tuesday, check out the details here.

My Portfolio as of August 14, 2007

Below is my portfolio as it stands as of August 14, 2007. I will be discussing the stocks I purchase and my previous positions on this blog.

Over the past year I have realized $650.69 of profit but my current stocks have unrealized losses of $334.18. My biggest loss was Bally Total Fitness (BFT), which really hurt (748.98) as they became delisted. I then made that up with the Pet Food scandel as I purchased Menu Foods (MEW.UN) after it was knocked down in the initial few days before they realized it was an import and more than Menu Foods was impacted. I then made that up with the Sobeys going private annoucement.

I currently hold my largest position in Tim Hortons (THI.TO). I have a large loss position in Lexmark (LXK) and a big gamble on Canadian Imperial Venture Corp (CQV.V).

Today, I took a gamble and bought some VMWare (VMW) at around $50 a share. Hopefully that works out!